Scars remind us where we've been. They don't have to dictate where we're going

Saturday, May 21, 2011

VBAC Success Predictor

The other day on Mothering's VBAC forum, a woman posted a thread about her OB's prediction that her VBA2C only had a 30-40% chance of success.  Of course, this thread caught my attention and I was even more excited when someone posted a link to a VBAC success predictor.  I'm not sure if I will get put in time out for this, but I, of course, did it.  I wasn't sure what weight to put in--my pre-pregnancy weight (or what I hope it to be when I get the last of E's weight off :) or the weight I will be when I deliver--so I did both of those, using the weight I was when I delivered E, which I refuse to be any bigger than (unless I start at a higher weight, which is unacceptable).  And here are my results:

With my pre-pregnancy weight--57.8% chance of success (with a confidence interval of 54.6%-60.9%)
With the weight when I delivered E--48.8% chance of success (with a confidence interval of 45.4%-52.3%)

So, basically, according to that calculator, I'm looking at about a 50/50 shot of success.  That's decent, but I'm hoping it's even higher considering how far I progressed before I was sectioned with E.  I think I will go into my next birth thinking only that I will have a vaginal birth--speaking my truth, so to speak, but it was still kind of cool to try this tool out and see what my chances might be.


  1. I think your chances are 99.5%. Thats right, I think theres a .5% chance you will need to transfer! And I cannot wait to stay up all night as you tweet your progress :)) I think you've got this one in the bag.

  2. I just love you, Lauren <3